The Bank of Mongolia kept its key policy rate unchanged at 12% at its December 2025 meeting. Policymakers noted that planned wage increases next year are expected to put upward pressure on inflation, while inflation is projected to enter and stabilize within the target range in 2026. However, the central bank highlighted several upside risks to the inflation outlook, including the financing of government projects, developments in export revenues and the exchange rate, as well as weather conditions and supply-driven price pressures. Annual inflation stood at 8.2% in November, remaining above target. The Bank of Mongolia aims to keep inflation within a 5% target band, plus or minus 2 percentage points, from 2027 onward. The central bank also noted that global and Chinese growth prospects have improved, as the impact of US tariffs has proven smaller than initially anticipated. Despite the improvement in external conditions, uncertainty remains elevated.
