Austrália Índice Principal de Atividade Econômica

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index for Australia edged up 0.1% month-over-month in July 2025, after being flat in the previous month. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate ticked up to 0.12% from 0.01%, pointing to sluggish momentum in the second half of 2025 and early 2026. “The recovery that began last year continues, but at a slow pace,” said Matthew Hassan, Westpac’s Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting. Westpac projects GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, up slightly from 1.3% in 2024, with growth only expected to return to its 2.2% trend pace by late 2026. Hassan noted that “further interest rate easing will likely be required to ensure the recovery regains traction.” Still, the RBA is unlikely to rush, as the impact of past cuts is still flowing through the economy, and the labor market is only gradually softening. On balance, Westpac expects the central bank to hold rates in September before delivering another 25bps cut in November.